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Title:Prihodnji scenariji rabe tal na celotnem območju Parka Škocjanske jame z uporabo prostorskega modela DynaCLUE
Authors:Cotič, Klemen (Author)
Malek, Žiga (Mentor) More about this mentor... New window
Valant, Matjaž (Mentor) More about this mentor... New window
Files:.pdf Klemen_Cotic.pdf (7,32 MB)
 
Language:Slovenian
Work type:Bachelor thesis/paper (mb11)
Tipology:2.11 - Undergraduate Thesis
Organization:FZO - Faculty of Environmental Sciences
Abstract:Spremembe rabe tal, kot posledica naših dejavnosti, imajo pomemben vpliv na različne okoljske prvine, kot npr. raven biotske raznovrstnosti in erozijo tal. V tem delu se ukvarjamo s spremembo rabe tal v prihodnosti na širšem območju Regijskega parka Škocjanske jame, z uporabo geografskih informacijskih sistemov, statistike in prostorskega modeliranja. Najprej smo z uporabo zbirke različnih lokacijskih dejavnikov (nadmorska višina, naklon reliefa, ekspozicija tal, oddaljenost od cest, naselij, pedološke profile tal itd.) statistično analizirali prostorsko razporeditev rabe tal s pomočjo logistične regresije. Njivske površine se pojavljajo predvsem na območjih psevdoglenih distričnih tal, trajni nasadi pa niso odvisni od tipa tal. Zaraščene površine in gozd se pojavljajo na celotnem območju, brez močnega vpliva posameznih spremenljivk. Na podlagi različnih dokumentov in uradnih statistik smo zatem razvili tri različne scenarije rabe tal do leta 2035. V prvem se travniške in kmetijske površine obnovijo na raven iz leta 1985, drugi se osredotoča na širitev poselitvenih in industrijskih površin, tretji pa upošteva smernice trajnostnega razvoja. Po simulaciji z modelom DynaCLUE lahko ugotovimo, da se posamezne rabe tal, neodvisno od velikosti scenarija pojavljajo na podobnih mestih. Ne glede na to dejstvo razviti scenariji pomagajo določiti območja, kjer je večja verjetnost za širjenje naselij ali pa kjer je večja verjetnost opuščanja kmetijskih površin.
Keywords:prihodnji scenariji, raba tal, Park Škocjanske jame, logistična regresija, DynaCLUE
Year of publishing:2019
Source:Nova Gorica
COBISS_ID:5464059 Link is opened in a new window
URN:URN:SI:UNG:REP:3XT1BPGE
Views:814
Downloads:42
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Secondary language

Language:English
Title:Future land use scenarios on the entire area of Škocjan caves Park with the use of spatial model DynaCLUE
Abstract:Land use changes as a result of our activities have a significant impact on various environmental elements, such as the level of biotic diversity and soil erosion. This thesis analyses future land use changes in the entire area of Škocjan caves Park, using geographic information systems, statistics and spatial modelling. First, the spatial distribution of current land use was analyzed with logistic regression and a collection of different driving factors (such as altitude, slope, distance from roads and settlements, pedological soil profiles, etc.). Croplands can be found mainly on Dystric Planosol soil, whereas permanent crops are not dependent on the soil type. Overgrown areas and forests appear throughout the area, without the strong influence of any individual variable. Based on various documents and official statistics, we then developed three future land use scenarios. In the first land use scenario meadow and agricultural areas are restored to the same level as in the year 1985, the second focuses on the expansion of settlement and industrial areas, and the third scenario takes into account the guidelines for sustainable development. Simulation of DynaCLUE model in every scenario shows that, individual land use, irrespective of the size of the modified surface, occurs in relatively similar places. Nevertheless, the scenarios help us identify areas where there is a greater likelihood of the spread of settlements, or the abandonment of agricultural land.
Keywords:future scenarios, land use, Škocjan caves Park, logistic regression, DynaCLUE


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