1. |
2. |
3. Two regimes in the regularity of sunspot numberAlexander Shapoval, Jean-Louis Le Mouël, Vincent Courtillot, M. Shnirman, 2013, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: Sunspot numbers WN display quasi-periodical variations that undergo regime changes. These irregularities could indicate a chaotic system and be measured by Lyapunov exponents. We define a functional λ (an "irregularity index") that is close to the (maximal) Lyapunov exponent for dynamical systems and well defined for series with a random component: this allows one to work with sunspot numbers. We compute λ for the daily WN from 1850 to 2012 within 4 yr sliding windows: λ exhibit sharp maxima at solar minima and secondary maxima at solar maxima. This pattern is reflected in the ratio R of the amplitudes of the main versus secondary peaks. Two regimes have alternated in the past 150 yr, R1 from 1850 to 1915 (large λ and R values) and R2 from 1935 to 2005 (shrinking difference between main and secondary maxima, R values between 1 and 2). We build an autoregressive model consisting of Poisson noise plus an 11 yr cycle and compute its irregularity index. The transition from R1 to R2 can be reproduced by strengthening the autocorrelation a of the model series. The features of the two regimes are stable for model and WN with respect to embedding dimension and delay. Near the time of the last solar minimum (~2008), the irregularity index exhibits a peak similar to the peaks observed before 1915. This might signal a regime change back from R2 to R1 and the onset of a significant decrease of solar activity.
Ključne besede: Lyapunov exponent, solar activity, solar cycle
Objavljeno v RUNG: 19.04.2021; Ogledov: 2984; Prenosov: 62
 Povezava na celotno besedilo
Gradivo ima več datotek! Več... |
4. Solar Cycle Modulation of Cosmic Rays Observed with the Low Energy Modes of the Pierre Auger ObservatoryJimmy Masías-Meza, Andrej Filipčič, Gašper Kukec Mezek, Ahmed Saleh, Samo Stanič, Marta Trini, Darko Veberič, Serguei Vorobiov, Lili Yang, Danilo Zavrtanik, Marko Zavrtanik, 2015, objavljeni znanstveni prispevek na konferenci Opis: The low energy modes of the surface detector array of the
Pierre Auger Observatory record variations in the flux of low
energy secondary particles with extreme detail. These two modes
consist of recording (1) the rate of signals for energies
between ∼15 MeV and ∼100 MeV (the Scaler mode) and (2) the
calibration charge histograms of the individual pulses detected
by each water-Cherenkov station, covering different energy
channels up to ∼1 GeV (the Histogram mode). Previous work has
studied the flux of galactic cosmic rays on short and
intermediate time scales (i.e. from minutes to weeks) using
these low energy modes. In this work, after including a long-
term correction to the response of the detectors, we present
the first long-term analysis of the flux of cosmic rays using
scalers and two energy bands of the calibration histograms.
We show its sensitivity to the solar cycle variation and its
relation to the solar modulation of cosmic rays for an 8-year
period.
Ključne besede: Pierre Auger Observatory, Surface Detector, secondary cosmic rays, scaler mode, charge histogram mode, solar cycle modulation
Objavljeno v RUNG: 03.03.2016; Ogledov: 6239; Prenosov: 209
 Celotno besedilo (533,18 KB) |
